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New energy: rely on policy support and competition to get on the fast track

2009 became the inflection point of the global photovoltaic industry, and began to recover in 2010

since 2004, the photovoltaic industry in Germany and Japan has developed rapidly after the government introduced subsidy policies. In addition, Spain also introduced preferential photovoltaic industry support policies in 2007, which led to a sharp increase in its domestic solar energy installation, Europe and Japan have jointly promoted the unconventional development of the global photovoltaic industry. By the end of 2008, the cumulative installed capacity of solar energy in the world had reached 14.73gw

we believe that 2009 will become the inflection point of the global photovoltaic industry, and there may be negative growth in installed capacity. From 2010, the global photovoltaic industry will recover and embark on the road of rapid development

"parity" is no longer out of reach, and the commercialization process of photovoltaic industry has accelerated.

about 2015, photovoltaic power generation will achieve "parity" on the distribution side, that is, it will operate in accordance with the "net electricity meter" mode, which is equivalent to the power company purchasing photovoltaic electricity with the sales electricity price, whose electricity price is 0, and the rotation of the force measuring pointer will slow down 0 yuan/kwh; Around 2020, photovoltaic power generation will achieve "parity" on the power generation side, that is, the cost is consistent with conventional energy, and the electricity price is 0 36 yuan/kwh

at this stage, before photovoltaic power generation has reached parity, its industrial development mainly depends on government subsidies for electricity prices or installation costs. At present, the demand driven by government subsidies accounts for about 35% to 45% of the total demand. In addition to the problem of supply and demand, we believe that the core problem that puzzles the domestic photovoltaic industry lies in the issue of electricity price and subsidies. According to relevant calculations, 1 The output of plastic daily necessities of 68 yuan/kWh accounts for 70% of the Chinese market. Only when the electricity price is raised can the investor guarantee an investment return of about 8%. Too low the electricity price will inhibit the investment enthusiasm of the photovoltaic industry

investment suggestions

we pay close attention to the improvement of photovoltaic installation goals and the introduction of supporting subsidy rules in the "new energy industry revitalization plan". We are optimistic about Tianwei baobian with the advantages of a complete industrial chain and Topri Xinneng with core technology and independent manufacturing advantages

risk tips

1. China's photovoltaic industry relies heavily on exports

2. Overcapacity in the industry has been formed, and the start of the domestic demand market is crucial

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